Exponentialism

[swestrup]

Way back in the depths of internet time, I posted a chart on my blog. It talked about the rate of change of technological progress. Most of the information was taken from Kurzweil's website (there's a pointer in the previous post so I won't bother here). I've just been listening to a podcast of the man speaking about the rate of change of technology. He mentions that at todays (circa 2006) rate of technological progress, we are advancing as far, technologically, as we did between 1900 and 2000 every 20 years. Because today's rate isn't constant, we'll finish another 'standard century of progress' in the next 14 years. The 'century' after that will only take 7 years.

If he's right, that chart was way too conservative. I'm planning to pick up his book The Singularity is Near, as soon as I can manage to afford it (or it shows up at a nearby library), and see what his more detailed estimates say.

Comments

[pphaneuf.livejournal.com]

Didn't you borrow the book from wlach?

D'Oh!

[swestrup]

I had forgotten I was going to borrow it from him! Is he back from his trip yet?

Re: D'Oh!

[pphaneuf.livejournal.com]

I think he's on his way back now.

[capj.livejournal.com]

I don't know... where are the lunar colonies? Where is the weather control? Where is the fusion power? You call this the future?? Geeeeeeeezzzz....

[sps.livejournal.com]

Zero excrement on that one, I gotta say.